Mid-Week Market Minute 8.28.24

Stock Unchanged; GDP, PCE, Jobless Claims Data This Week

Global stocks were mostly unchanged in early trading this week as both U.S. and international markets continue to trade at or near all-time highs heading into month-end. Despite the sharp sell-off to start the month, all major indices are on pace to finish August in positive territory. It’s been a strong month for fixed income investors as well, as the Bloomberg US Aggregate index is higher by nearly 2% for August, benefitting from lower interest rates.

On the data front, the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence rose from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July to 103.3 in August. The improvement reflects a further decline in inflation expectations as well as interest rates. On Thursday, markets will get look at the second estimate of Q2 real GDP growth, which is expected to remain unchanged from last month’s estimate of 2.8%. Elsewhere, both inflation and the labor market remain top of mind for the markets. Thursday morning will bring initial and continuing jobless claims, followed by the PCE Price Index on Friday. Continuing jobless claims are expected to post a modest increase from last week, but still signal a strong labor market. On the inflation front, the Core PCE Price Index is expected to show an increase of 0.2% for the month of July, signaling a continuation of the disinflationary trends of late.

On the earnings front, all eyes will be on NVIDIA, scheduled to report Q2 earnings after the close on Wednesday. Analysts expect NVIDIA to post triple-digit revenue growth for the fourth-consecutive quarter. Shares of NVIDIA have rallied more than 150% YTD, and the stock currently represents nearly 7% of the S&P 500 index. Any significant deviation from the market expectation for earnings could have outsized impacts on the broader market, given the nearly $50 billion in average daily trading volume for the stock.

Source: GSAM, CNBC, JPMorgan, FactSet

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