Mid-Week Market Minute 7.3.24

Stocks Higher This Week; Key Payrolls Report on Friday 

Stocks were mostly higher on the front-end of this holiday-shortened trading week. Expect thin trading volumes for the remainder of the week as both stock and bond markets in the U.S. will be closed from mid-day Wednesday through Thursday for Independence Day. 

In bonds, Treasury yields jumped higher at the open on Monday before settling down on Tuesday and Wednesday, following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a monetary forum in Portugal. In his remarks on Tuesday morning, Powell reiterated previous rhetoric, noting the U.S. economy is indeed moving in the right direction on the inflation front, but more progress is needed before cutting interest rates. Markets likely will hear much of the same when minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting are released later Wednesday morning. 

On the data front, preliminary employment data on Wednesday morning came in softer than expected. The ADP employment report on Wednesday showed private payroll gains were lower than expected in June, while weekly jobless claims came in above consensus. On Friday morning, investors will shift their attention to the more widely followed nonfarm payrolls report, where investors will get a closer look at the health of the U.S. labor market. Economists expect the U.S. economy to post job gains of around 190,000 for June, well below May’s blowout reading of 272,000, but still a very strong number. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain firm at around 4%. 

Source: GSAM, CNBC, JPMorgan 

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